Alongside perps and spot, Hyperbeat runs prediction markets. Instead of trading the price of an asset, you trade the outcome of a real-world question: will an event happen or not. They live on their own page at /predict, separate from the Trade screen, and settle in USDC. This guide explains how they work.
What a prediction market is
A prediction market turns a question into something you can trade. "Will this team win the tournament?" "Will this number land above a threshold by a certain date?" Each question resolves to one answer, Yes or No, once the real-world result is known. Until then, you can buy and sell your view on the outcome.
The price of a market is a live estimate of how likely the crowd thinks the answer is Yes.
Yes and No shares
Every question has two sides, Yes and No, and each is a share priced between 0 and 1 dollar:
- A Yes share pays 1 USDC if the answer turns out to be Yes, and nothing if it is No.
- A No share pays 1 USDC if the answer turns out to be No, and nothing if it is Yes.
Because a winning share always pays exactly 1 USDC, the current price reads directly as a probability. Hyperbeat shows this as the % Chance in the market's stats, next to Price (Yes). A Yes share trading at 0.40 means the market prices the event at roughly a 40 percent chance.
Here is the intuition with numbers. You buy Yes at 0.40 USDC per share:
- If the event happens, each share pays 1 USDC. You made 0.60 per share.
- If it does not, the shares expire worthless and you lose your 0.40 per share.
You do not have to hold to the end. As the odds move, the price of your shares moves with them, and you can sell to lock in a gain or cut a loss at any time before the market settles.
Single questions and multi-outcome markets
Some markets are a single Yes or No question. Others bundle many possible outcomes under one event, for example each team in a tournament. In a multi-outcome market, the page lists every outcome as its own row with its own Yes and No prices and % chance, and a search box helps when the list is long. Pick the outcome you want a view on, then choose Yes or No on it.
The stats strip shows the market's Total 24H Volume, Open Interest, and, for a multi-outcome market, the number of Outcomes.
Placing a prediction trade
The order form works much like the Trade order form, adapted for outcomes:
- Choose a side. Toggle between Yes and No (some markets label the sides by name, such as a team, rather than plain Yes and No).
- Enter your size. Prediction size is measured in Contracts, where one contract pays 1 USDC if it wins. The form shows what your position would return if the outcome goes your way.
- Buy or sell. Buy to open or add to a position; sell to reduce or close it before settlement.
As with the rest of Hyperbeat, trading is gasless and one-click once your account is set up.
Following your positions
Your open predictions appear in the Predictions tab at the bottom of the page, separate from your perp and spot positions. There you can watch each position's value move with the odds and close it whenever you like.
Every market also has a Rules button that opens a Market Rules dialog spelling out exactly how the question is defined and what counts as Yes or No. Read it before you trade, so you know precisely what you are betting on.
How a market settles
Each market has a settlement time, shown as a Settles In countdown in the stats strip. When the countdown ends, the market moves through two states, and the order form is replaced by a settlement panel:
- Awaiting Settlement: trading is closed and the result is being finalized.
- Market Settled: the outcome is confirmed. The panel shows the winning side, and if you traded the market, your realized result: "You won" or "You lost" a dollar amount on the total you staked. If you sat this one out, it simply notes you did not trade this market.
Winning shares pay out 1 USDC each and losing shares expire at zero. For recurring markets, a Trade next market shortcut jumps you straight to the next question in the series.
How predictions differ from perps
- No leverage, no liquidation. You can only lose what you put into a position; there is no margin call and no funding rate.
- Prices are capped. A share lives between 0 and 1 USDC, and the answer is ultimately binary, so the payoff is defined from the start.
- They settle. Unlike a perp, a prediction market has an end date and a final answer.
That makes prediction markets one of the more approachable ways to take a view, since the downside on any single share is simply its price.
A note on risk
Prediction markets are still speculation. Odds can move sharply on news, thin markets can be volatile, and a confident-looking price can still resolve against you. Trade sizes you are comfortable losing, and read the market rules so there are no surprises at settlement.
Keep learning
- Getting started with Hyperbeat Trade
- Markets on Hyperbeat Trade: perps, spot, stocks, and more
- A tour of the Hyperbeat Trade interface
Nothing in this article is financial advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and you should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
